May 16: Putin Stalls Ukraine Peace Talks
Saudi Arabia and France to host conference for Palestinian statehood; DHS asks Pentagon for soldiers to assist with deportations; Comey's cryptic Instagram post
The Big Story
The peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, called by Russian President Vladimir Putin, were scheduled to take place in Istanbul on Thursday. But the plan hit a major obstacle when Putin declined to attend, according to NBC News. President Donald Trump dismissed concerns about Putin’s absence, telling reporters outside Air Force One en route to the United Arab Emirates that Putin wouldn’t attend unless both leaders could meet in person. “[Putin] wasn’t going if I wasn’t going there,” Trump said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he would meet the Ukrainian negotiation delegation in Istanbul on Friday, and indeed the talks continued—but yielded little beyond an agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war on each side, according to The Kyiv Independent.
President Trump’s frustrations seem to have shifted focus from Ukraine—readers will recall the heated Oval Office exchange between Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last February—to Putin and Russia. Earlier this week, Trump vented on Truth Social about his dismay that Putin wanted to hold the peace talks prior to agreeing to any kind of a cease-fire.
To better understand Putin’s motivations and the broader implications of the stalled negotiations, The Scroll spoke by phone with Tablet’s Ukraine expert, Vladislav Davidzon. “Putin doesn’t want a deal,” he said, continuing:
He sees himself as winning. He’s already absorbed the economic and political costs of the war, including Western and some Eastern sanctions, and he’s consolidated his regime. He views this as year two or three of a five- or seven-year war, which he intends to win.
After the Russia-Ukraine talks concluded, Zelenskyy and several European leaders—French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk—held a phone call with Trump, per The Kyiv Independent. No details of the conversation have been released, but Zelenskyy and the European leaders issued statements afterward.
On Telegram, Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to take the “fastest steps” to achieve “real peace.” Tusk blamed Russia for abruptly ending the negotiations and condemned its unwillingness to end the bloodshed. Starmer called Russia’s negotiation position “unacceptable.”
What is that position? Russia has demanded that Ukraine relinquish four territories—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—according to Reuters. These areas are already partially occupied by Russian forces, but the demand is untenable for Kyiv, as it would not secure lasting peace but merely initiate a temporary cease-fire.
Russia’s demand seems designed to be unacceptable, allowing Moscow to avoid a cease-fire altogether. “It’s basically Russia saying, ‘Give up all those villages you’ve been valiantly defending without a fight,’” Davidzon said. “Not in exchange for a lasting peace deal, but for a cease-fire that Russia will likely violate anyway.”
Zelenskyy and the European leaders stressed the need for tougher sanctions on Russia in response to these excessive demands, but it remains unclear whether intensified sanctions could facilitate peace.
These developments place Trump, who made ending the Russia-Ukraine war a campaign pledge, in a precarious position. In 2023, Trump claimed he could end the war in “one day,” but the conflict’s dynamics have shifted dramatically, making a peace deal more elusive than ever. Russia may have gained too much leverage during Joe Biden’s presidency, and by the time Trump took office in 2025, it was arguably too late. “If Trump had taken power in month three, he could have had a deal,” Davidzon said. “If he had taken power after the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of year two he would have had more leverage to stop the fighting.” Russia believes victory is imminent, while Ukraine, Davidzon notes, is faring better than it was six months ago.
Failure would be catastrophic for both. For Ukraine, defeat would be practically existential, given the devastation that the conflict has already wrought upon it. For Russia, it would be politically disastrous. “Russia is an autocracy,” Davidzon said. “Autocracies can’t lose wars without risking legitimacy.”
Trump may have drastically underestimated the challenge of securing agreement from both sides. So far, most of his pressure has been directed at Ukraine, which was compelled to enter negotiations before securing any robust security guarantees, beyond the minerals deal made with the U.S. in April. Davidzon suggested that Zelenskyy’s threshold for a deal might be lower than that of the Ukrainian public, as he knows his government risks bleeding out if the war continues. If anything, Trump’s pressure may have given Zelenskyy something of an off-ramp given that the appearance of Trump’s coercion allows him to maintain an image of defiance in the eyes of his people.
But how pressure can be applied at this juncture to Russia, now that Putin seems confident of victory, remains more uncertain than ever.
—Adam Lehrer
The Rest
→Saudi Arabia and France will host an international conference in New York in June with United Nations backing to establish a road map for the creation of Palestinian statehood, according to Israel Hayom. The plan for Palestinian statehood won’t require Palestine to recognize the legitimacy of the Israeli state and disregards Israel’s security concerns. The conference is being held in the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-Palestinian declarations and is said to move beyond recognizing statements to establish objectives with full implementation plans, including sanctions against states that obstruct the process. In the invitation to U.N. member states, conference organizers say the event will “pave the way for ending the occupation and promote a permanent settlement based on the two-state solution.” Even worse, the invitation blames the violence and Oct. 7 attacks on “both sides.” The document, says the outlet, attempts to force Israel into a diplomatic process without its consent.
→The Department of Homeland Security asked the Pentagon to provide 20,000 National Guard troops to assist in the deportation of illegal migrants, The New York Times reported Thursday. Pentagon lawyers were reviewing DHS’s request with “interior immigration enforcement,” according to a Defense Department official. While National Guard troops have assisted local law enforcement officials at the border, this would be the first time they were called to directly assist with deportations. The request comes as President Trump is trying to fulfill his campaign pledge to carry out mass deportations, which so far have fallen short of what the administration wants.
→REMINDER: The Scroll is leaving Substack and moving behind a paywall on June 1.
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→Former FBI Director James Comey posted a cryptic image on his Instagram Thursday, where the numbers “86 47” are spelled out through rock and shell formation on the sands of some beach. In military parlance, to “86” something can be interpreted as to refuse service or to “get rid” of it, according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary. 47 is … well, let’s just say that Donald Trump is our 47th president. For obvious reasons, the post led to immediate controversy, and he is now being investigated by the Secret Service. He has since deleted it, claiming he didn’t know that “86” had anything to do with violence, and apologized. In a Fox News interview Friday morning, the president himself wasn’t buying Comey’s apology or explanation: “He knew exactly what that meant,” said Trump. “A child knows what that meant. If you’re the FBI director and you don’t know what that meant, that meant assassination, and it says it loud and clear.”
→Crypto trading app Coinbase announced Thursday that cybercriminals had bribed some of the company’s overseas support agents to steal customer data in social engineering attacks, according to CNBC. The incident could likely cost the company around $400 million. The crypto exchange operator received an email on May 11 from someone claiming they obtained information about certain Coinbase customer accounts as well as other internal Coinbase documentation, including materials relating to customer service. Coinbase and its subsidiaries are covered by Coinbase Global Inc.’s crime insurance, which protects a portion of digital assets from theft, like cybersecurity breaches.
→Yesterday, we reported that Trump’s tax bill was near to being passed. On Thursday, however, the bill appeared to hit a roadblock when hardline conservatives demanded bigger cuts to Medicaid in exchange for their support in a key procedural vote, according to Reuters. House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington warned that the vote, scheduled for today, could be delayed due to opposition to the measure, which could add trillions to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt over the next decade. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the bill was still on track for a floor vote next week. The two hardliners opposing this version of the bill are Reps. Ralph Norman and Andrew Clyde. Rep. Chip Roy expressed disapproval of it and Rep. Josh Brecheen called for more time to examine its costs.
→Secretary of State Marco Rubio met his Syrian counterpart, Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, on Thursday, days after President Trump vowed to lift sanctions on Syria during his trip to Saudi Arabia. The New York Times said that the meeting further signals that relations between the U.S. and Syria are warming. Rubio and al-Shaibani discussed a road map for the remaining sanctions on Syria to be lifted, according to both Syrian and Turkish officials. Rubio told reporters that the goal was to help create a peaceful and stable Syria.
→Is being the first “Catholic convert Vice President” as groundbreaking as being the first American pope? Our sources say no, but Vice President JD Vance needs his acknowledgement nonetheless.
→Boeing reached a tentative nonprosecution agreement with federal prosecutors in a fraud case that emerged after two 737 MAX planes crashed and killed 346 people, according to Reuters. The agreement forestalls the June 23 trial date set to litigate the charge Boeing was hit with for misleading U.S. regulators about a flight control system on the 737 MAX, but still requires the approval of a judge. Boeing withdrew its guilty plea, prosecutors told the families of the crashes’ victims. Officials of the Department of Justice are still mulling over whether to take the nonprosecution deal or to go ahead and bring the case to trial.
→REMINDER: The Scroll is leaving Substack and moving behind a paywall on June 1.
Scroll readers who subscribe before June 1 will receive one free gift subscription. And if you subscribe this week you can use the discount code CHAITABLET for 18% off.
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Giving the Palestinians their own "state" is like a father naming his cretinous illiterate son CEO of the family business, even though everyone knows the new CEO will spend all his time picking his nose and making paper airplanes.
How does a people become a state or gain statehood? Wouldn't the bare minimum have to be the ability to govern your own territory, have relatively peaceful relations with your neighbors, have some sort of legitimacy involving a parliament or congress where everyone acknowledges each other's rights and works to help improve the lives of their people? The Palestinians fail at the bare minimum of any of this.
For the West the "2-state solution" has been a sacred delusion for decades now, it is simply beyond the ability of secular liberals to squarely face and accept what the Palestinians are or to look clearly at the basic facts: they have been offered their own state multiple times over multiple decades and have refused every single offer because the goal of their movement isn't the creation of their own state but the destruction of the Jewish state.
How many times do they have to say this for people to listen and believe!?
And now Israel is supposed to accept that the French are somehow gifting the Palestinians their own state as a reward for 10/7? Macron is a moral and intellectual midget trying to play statesman and while history will immediately forget him the moment he leaves office, he should always be remembered as a pretentious Parisian Neville Chamberlain.
With the Scroll leaving substack many of us otherwise subscribers at a more reasonable $60 to $80 annual model will leave this worthwhile outlet behind, and sadly the good work by Park and Adam will mostly go ignored and unread.