May 2: Iran Nuclear Talks Stall
De minimis exemption stalls; Charles Koch "concerned"; Victory Day
The Big Story
The fourth round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, scheduled to take place tomorrow in Rome, have been postponed, according to Reuters. One can assume that the halted talks have something to do with President Donald Trump’s Thursday Truth Social post announcing that any country that purchases oil from Iran will be barred from doing business with the United States—and under threat of secondary sanctions.
Indeed, Iran accused the United States of “contradictory” behavior on Thursday, likely referring not just to Trump’s warning about purchasing Iranian oil, but also to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s Wednesday statement threatening Iran if it continues to support Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
According to eight sources who spoke with Reuters, the “initial framework” of a new nuclear deal would preserve the core of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—the infamous Iran deal that Trump once called “the worst deal ever”—but he would extend that plan to 25 years, tighten verification, and expand so-called sunset clauses that delay aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, Iran would limit stockpile size and centrifuge types and dilute, export, or seal its 60% uranium stock under unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny in exchange for sanctions relief. Dennis Ross, a former negotiator for both Democrats and Republicans, told Reuters that these terms don’t go nearly far enough and that a new agreement must impose a permanent structural change in Tehran’s nuclear capabilities to the point where ever building a bomb becomes all but impossible.
The issue of Iran enriching uranium poses an entirely different set of problems. For one, Iran claims that its right to enrich uranium is “nonnegotiable.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was reportedly “blindsided” by Trump’s thwarting of his plans to launch military strikes when he visited the White House in early April, is demanding “zero-enrichment” of uranium and a Libya-style deal that dismantles Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said that Iran also must stop and eliminate its uranium enrichment program.
In reality, however, the proposals made during the first three discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials would cap Iran’s uranium enrichment at about 3.67%—directly in line with the original Iran deal, according to Iranian sources who spoke with Reuters.
But in a Thursday appearance on Sean Hannity’s Fox News program, Secretary of State and Interim National Security Advisor Marco Rubio dismissed the 3.67% “limit” as meaningless, telling Hannity:
The level at which they enrich it is not really relevant per se because, really, if you have the ability to enrich at 3.67%, it only takes a few weeks to get to 20%, and then 60% and then the 80 and 90% that you need for a weapon.
Rubio said that Iran’s insistence on continuing to enrich uranium despite claiming it doesn’t want a nuclear weapon is absurd. “The only countries that have enriched uranium are countries with nuclear weapons,” Rubio noted. If Iran wants to keep its nuclear facilities and continue to develop economically, said Rubio, it must agree to give up on enrichment, give up on sponsoring terrorists, and give up its long-range missiles.
CNN reported earlier this afternoon that Iran is crafting a new proposal for a nuclear agreement with the United States, couching it in rhetoric that flatters the president’s pledge to “make America rich again.” Tehran’s argument is that a war with Iran would bleed American coffers, while diplomacy could open the door to economic prosperity. Iranian officials believe the best way to pitch a new nuclear deal to the president would be to present it as a win for the U.S. economy.
These developments beg the question: What exactly does President Trump want? As has often been the case with this administration, it’s difficult to discern whether this is a form of controlled chaos consistent with The Art of the Deal or simply undiluted chaos. One senior policy analyst is concerned that the administration isn’t quite sure of what it’s doing with Iran. “One is left with the choice between cosmic fifth-dimensional chess genius and total disorganization by a bunch of amateurs who are all waiting for the boss to actually decide,” he says.
One intriguing possibility is that all of these negotiations with Iran have been a smokescreen to allow President Trump to appease his anti-interventionist base by saying he did everything he could to negotiate before the Islamic Republic forced his hand, allowing Trump to do what he maybe always wanted to do: launch military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The problem with that is the opposite could also be true—meaning, the president’s threats and warnings are the smokescreens meant to appease the hawkish elements of Trump’s base, justifying his real intentions of negotiating a new JCPOA. As ever, it’s anyone’s guess.
—Adam Lehrer
The Rest
→Shortly before The Scroll published, Politico reported that Secretary Rubio will serve as both National Security Advisor and Secretary of State for at least six months, and that the White House is urging others to stop campaigning for the role. Rubio is the first statesmen to fill both roles since Henry Kissinger, who served as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor from 1973 to 1975 under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.
→A shipping loophole known as the de minimis exemption, which allowed shipments of goods worth $800 or less to come into the United States duty-free, expired today, according to CNN. The end of the loophole could signal the beginning of Americans experiencing some of the financial hardships associated with President Trump’s tariffs policy on China, analysts argue. The loophole reshaped the way Americans shop, allowing Chinese e-commerce sites to pour cheap products into the country. One of those sites, Temu, already announced today that it will no longer sell goods imported from China into the United States directly and that instead it will rely on “locally based sellers,” with orders fulfilled within the country. The media is framing the ending of the de minimis exemption in the least flattering light possible, but Temu’s announcement is some proof that one of Trump’s goals with the Chinese tariffs policy—diverting business away from China and toward domestic manufacturers and sellers—might be achievable.
→Quote of the Day
You can see why we’re in this mess today. With so much change, chaos and conflict, too many people and organizations are abandoning these principles. But we know from history, this just makes the problems worse. And people have forgotten that when principles are lost, so are freedoms.
That’s billionaire Charles Koch accepting an award at the Cato Institute Thursday, reported by The New York Times, claiming that America is losing touch with its core “principles.” Though the philanthropist didn’t mention President Trump by name, it’s clear that’s who he was talking about. Considering the Koch fortune stems from the oil refineries Fred Koch helped build for dictatorial regimes in Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and other authoritarian governments, it’s a bit rich for Charles to be the one defining American values.
To read more about what far-right influencer Laura Loomer has alleged to be the “Koch coup” of Trump’s White House, check out the Tablet article linked below:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/trump-administration-staffing-sergio
→Victory Day
President Trump announced late last night that he was renaming two holidays as “Victory Day”: Victory in Europe Day (May 8), which is celebrated by our European allies as the day the Nazis were defeated in World War II, as well as Veterans Day (Nov. 11), which is celebrated to mark the United States’ victory during World War I. “We did more than any other Country, by far, in producing a victorious result on World War II,” said Trump on Truth Social. “We won both Wars, nobody was close to us in terms of strength, bravery, or military brilliance, but we never celebrate anything!” While May 8 corresponds with the day that combat with Nazi Germany ended, Trump critics are pointing out that the United States continued to fight with Japan until September 1945. Changing the name of Veterans Day might also prove to be controversial, given that the holiday was broadened in the 1950s—from one that celebrated WWI veterans specifically to one that honors all American vets.
→Graph of the Day
A few notions can be gleaned from this graph, put out by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University, that compares the deportations made during every administration from George W. Bush to Joe Biden. First, we can see how unprecedented the Biden border policy was, in the context of other administrations. Second, we can see that President Barack Obama absolutely lived up to the name “deporter in chief,” given to him by immigrants—which in turn underscores the overblown nature of Democratic opposition to President Trump’s border policy. CNN reported in 2024 that one reason deportations in Trump’s first term lagged behind those in both of Obama’s terms is that local law enforcement authorities stopped cooperating on deportations when Trump took office in 2016.
→The IDF is set to begin expanding its military efforts in the Gaza Strip next week, preparing for a mass call-up of reservists as it looks to expand its military operations in the region, according to Ynetnews. In “recent days,” many reserve officers have informed troops to prepare for an unexpected call-up, with reserves divided into two groups: battalions tasked with offensive frontline operations in Gaza, and brigades that will replace regular forces as the “spearhead” in the upcoming operation. Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, who has stressed the need for the IDF to grow in response to Israel’s security needs, said bringing back the hostages still held by Hamas is the number one goal. Last weekend, the IDF issued a statement clarifying that the call-up of reserve soldiers will be conducted “thoughtfully” and “responsibly.”
→Truth Social of the Day
Two weeks after threatening to do so, President Trump says he’s pulling the plug on Harvard’s tax-exempt status. He followed that with a speech at the University of Alabama’s commencement in which he implied that red-state schools should be the ones forging America’s future, not elite coastal universities like Harvard, according to Washington Examiner. “Congratulations to the Alabama class of 2025, standing here before you in this magnificent arena,” said the president. “It is clear to see that the next chapter of the American story will not be written by the Harvard Crimson. It will be written by you, the Crimson Tide.”
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To Charles Koch, “advancing liberty” means advocating on behalf of China to protect Koch’s business interests and allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons. The award is for being a donor, not a thinker. I can only hope his historic role as a right-wing villain will discredit his terrible policy views among those on the left who would otherwise be sympathetic to them.
Koch, receiving an award from a think tank he funds. 🤦♂️