What Happened Today: May 23, 2022
Biden upends decades-old policy; Southern Baptist leaders rocked by abuse report; Inflation leaves military families in limbo
The Big Story
In Tokyo Monday for his first presidential visit to Asia, Joe Biden appeared to overturn a decades-old American policy by directly committing the United States to the defense of Taiwan in the event the independent island nation is attacked by China. Biden’s reversal of the previous U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan was accompanied by the announcement of a new trade deal involving 12 Indo-Pacific countries, amounting to the administration’s most aggressive economic and military agenda yet in the Indo-Pacific, though one that remains light on details. Flanked at a press conference by the leaders of India and Japan, with other nation heads appearing by video, Biden launched the new economic alliance called the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a hazily defined partnership that Biden described as part of “the new rules for the 21st-century economy.” Seen as both a response to President Trump’s withdrawal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, and a countermeasure to the recently launched Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership led by China, this new U.S.-led bloc is something like a TPP lite. Lacking the reduced tariffs of a traditional free-trade agreement that would increase access for partners to the U.S. marketplace, the IPEF’s participants have nonetheless pledged participation in some or all of the bloc’s four pillars: supply chains, green energy, anti-corruption, and digital commerce. However, without any open-market provisions or rules of engagement established, many analysts say the material benefit of the bloc remains to be determined, with the value for now more of a symbolic gesture of goodwill toward a U.S. framework (rather than one led by China) that might bestow partners with better access to the U.S. market down the line. Speaking to reporters, Biden ratcheted up the China opposition rhetoric by making his third and most forceful public remark yet that he would provide military defense should China invade Taiwan, saying “Yes—that’s the commitment we made.” White House officials attempted to walk back Biden’s Taiwan comments, just as they had done the two previous times, but the rebuke was swift and sharp from China’s foreign minister representative, Wang Wenbin: “No one should underestimate the firm resolve, staunch will and strong ability of the Chinese people in defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The new posture from the Biden administration also represents a different kind of strategic ambiguity insofar as the gestures of increased competition with China have not disturbed the deeper elements of structural cooperation between the U.S. ruling class and the Chinese government, a relationship explored in a recent article at Tablet on “Why America Only Pretends to Compete with China.”
Read more: https://apnews.com/article/biden-asia-tokyo-government-and-politics-8577338ff19c5c17b78a4b747327aa34
More background here: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/why-america-only-pretends-to-compete-with-china
In The Back Pages: How Inflation Leaves Military Families in Limbo
The Rest
→ A scathing 288-page report investigating the Southern Baptist Convention found that leaders of the SBC intimidated and shunned both women and child victims of sexual abuse by male pastors and church employees while burying evidence of their allegations. The cover-up carried out by the SBC, the largest U.S. Protestant denomination, was part of a two-decade effort to undermine attempts to reform what investigators described as “a small cadre of staff” who did little in response to reports on at least several hundred abusers with ties to SBC churches. The SBC Executive Committee assigned the investigation to a third-party firm, Guidepost Solutions, after delegates at last year’s annual SBC meeting voted for church leadership to launch a probe into what the report would find to be a pattern of “resistance, stonewalling, and even outright hostility from some within the [executive committee].” Investigators said that resistance was largely motivated by a desire to avoid the costly litigation should those allegations surfaced, adding that, “for many years, a few senior [executive committee] leaders, along with outside counsel, largely controlled the [executive committee]’s response to these reports of abuse,” the report said, adding that the leadership was “singularly focused on avoiding liability for the SBC.”
→ As he hints at a 2024 run for president, former vice president Mike Pence looks to be trying to reintroduce himself to voters as a non-MAGA, middle-of-the-road Republican. Or maybe he’s just “desperate to chase his lost relevance,” as Trump representative Taylor Budowich told The New York Times. Pence has been carefully walking the line between denying Trump’s election fraud claims while touting (and tacitly taking some credit for) Trump’s achievements, but he could only avoid the ire of his former superior for so long. Budowich’s statement marks an opening shot in what is sure to be a Republican primary war, as Pence is laying the groundwork to go up against not only Trump but also many of his second-generation MAGA acolytes.
→ In the latest salvo in what Israel calls its “war between the wars” with Iran, Hassan Sayad Khodayari, a senior member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), was assassinated by two men on motorcycles in front of his home in Tehran on Sunday. The attack, which has all the marks of an Israeli Special Forces operation, targeted Khodayari because of his role smuggling weapons into Syria and planning attacks against Jews all over the world; Khodayari was also a close partner of the IRGC commander, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by Israeli forces in Iraq in 2020. Israel not only has targeted Iranian forces and proxies across the Middle East but also has done so increasingly on Iranian soil, including a bombing of Iran’s drone fleet in February that destroyed hundreds of Iranian drones. While Iran continues to use proxy forces against Israel, and thereby maintain deniability, Israel has been more conspicuously broadcasting its reach and power, targeting Iranian assets and commanders as the United States focuses on “normalizing” relations with Iran through a revived nuclear deal.
→ The global case count of monkeypox, a viral disease that is endemic in West Africa but not usually found elsewhere, is continuing to climb across Europe and the United States, with 92 cases now known and health and government officials beginning to raise alarms. Speaking from South Korea on Sunday, President Biden said that “everybody should be concerned” about the potentially “consequential” spread. Officials have also been careful to caution the public not to rush out and buy whatever antiviral drug becomes the next culture war; monkeypox, unlike COVID-19, is a well-known virus with established courses of treatment and a tested and effective vaccine. “This is a virus we understand,” the White House’s COVID response coordinator, Ashish Jha, said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “I am confident we’re going to be able to keep our arms around it.”
→ During that same appearance on “This Week,” Jha also said that the FDA would make a decision about COVID-19 vaccines for children under 5 years old in the near future. “What I know is that Moderna has completed its application; those data are being looked at very closely right now by FDA experts,” Jha said. “So my hope is that it’s going to be kind of coming in the next few weeks.” Earlier today, Pfizer announced it had submitted the results of its study to the FDA on its three-shot vaccine, which it said was 80% effective against COVID-19 infection for the under-5 set. By June 15, the FDA will have held a pair of meetings for a potential final greenlight on both companies’ vaccines.
→ McKinsey and Company, the powerful global consulting firm with deep ties to the U.S. government, was advising a Russian missile manufacturer while consulting for the Pentagon, according to NBC News. The news adds yet another example to the list of places where McKinsey was consulting with undisclosed conflicts of interest. McKinsey, which was contracted by the Pentagon to consult on “sensitive national security” issues, also worked with the state-owned Rostec, “a massive defense conglomerate that dominates Russia’s military-industrial complex.” A pattern is now becoming clear, with McKinsey consistently profiting off both sides of a given issue: The company was recently brought before Congress and questioned about whether it should be consulting opioid producers at the same time it was consulting health officials regulating opioid production. But don’t assume that McKinsey is never willing to take a strong and valued stance on an issue. NBC News noted that “McKinsey came in for criticism last year from some U.S. lawmakers when The Moscow Times obtained a company email telling employees in the Moscow office not to take part in demonstrations supporting opposition leader Alexei Navalny.”
→ The island nation of Sri Lanka is facing devastating food shortages as the country struggles through a potentially cataclysmic economic crisis. Fuel and medicine are also in perilously low supply, and economic activity has all but stopped, as citizens brace for the worst. “Without gas, without kerosene oil, we can’t do anything,” said one man in line for fuel. “Without food, we are going to die. That will happen 100%.” The economic crisis was initiated by the pandemic—Sri Lanka’s economy is largely reliant on tourism—but then made worse by government mismanagement, including its decision to ban the importation of all chemical fertilizers. This has devastated domestic food production just as the global food chain has been choked by the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, unprecedented levels of drought, and labor shortages in the shipping industry. Now, with food prices and inflation at historic highs, protestors have flocked to the streets to call for the resignation of the prime minister, yet the response so far has been from the police and their tear gas and water canons.
→ The Australian Labor Party, in the wake of this past weekend’s elections, will take control of the prime minister’s office and parliament, but with the distinction of being the least popular party to ever be voted into power in the county’s 120-year history. Labor’s candidate, Anthony “Albo” Albanese, is now set to be the most unliked leader of the country, replacing the even less liked Conservative candidate, Scott Morrison, who held the position since 2013. Much of Albanese’s electoral success has been attributed to his party’s handling of the pandemic; Labor leaders called for the strictest lockdown policies in the country and were strong supporters of the island nation’s decision to severely limit international travel. Labor did not win it alone, though, and was helped along by the deep issues plaguing their Conservative opposition, which included two rape allegations against senior officials and charges of widespread corruption. Albanese has promised that he will tackle corruption issues aggressively and has pledged to fight global warming, provide cheaper and better child and senior care, and raise minimum wage—pledges that will be hard to achieve as inflation continues to rise. As for foreign affairs, Australia’s new government shares a similar foreign policy posture to its old one. Prime Minister Albanese will be meeting with American, Indian, and Japanese leaders to discuss both China’s expansion in the region and China’s new security partnership with the Solomon Islands, Australia’s naval neighbor.
→ Kudos to Scroll columnist James Kirchick, whose new book, Secret City, “a sprawling and enthralling history” of Washington, D.C.’s gay subculture, notched an exuberant endorsement from the New York Times book review this weekend. Of course, we’re fans of Kirchick’s work here, but Times’ critic Alexandra Jacobs calls Secret City a “luxurious, slow-rolling Cadillac of a book, not to be mastered in one sitting. It would be best read at the violet hour with a snifter of brandy in a wood-paneled library.” We hear it also goes well with coffee and daylight.
Read it here: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/22/books/review-secret-city-history-gay-washington-james-kirchick.html
→ Correction: Last week, The Scroll incorrectly identified President Joe Biden as the recipient of an email from Tucker Carlson requesting a college letter of recommendation for his son from the then vice president. Carlson had written the email to Hunter Biden, not his father. We regret the error.
Additional reporting and writing provided by The Scroll’s associate editor, David Sugarman
How Inflation Leaves Military Families in Limbo
The negative impacts of inflation hardly require elaborate explanation. Likely voters, who have named it their top issue in a number of recent polls ahead of November’s midterm elections, are experiencing the consequences of rising home prices, soaring gas bills, and increasing costs of food and consumer goods. Less visible, however, is the effect inflation is having on the military. In the midst of a critical manpower shortage in the military, the additional stress inflation is placing on retention and recruiting efforts threatens to become a national security problem.
According to the Department of Defense (DoD), more than 400,000 service members move annually (also called making a PCS—permanent change of station), a number that doesn’t include spouses and children. This summer, the season when most PCS moves occur, a lot of military families will be in limbo. Some already are.
First, there’s the issue of packing up and leaving. Last summer, the labor shortage meant military families faced difficulties finding crews to pack, load, and move their belongings to their new duty station. This summer, the DoD’s Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) has put certain mitigation measures in place to try to space out demand for moving crews. However, there’s not much else they can do beyond expectation management.
“[Year] 2022 transit times have been adjusted to take into consideration global labor, supply chain congestion, and pandemic challenges in order to give customers a more accurate expectation of when to expect their belongings,” said a TRANSCOM spokesman over email.
“Several families have had their movers cancel and have been told to move themselves,” a military spouse in Alabama told The Scroll.
But that’s just the short-term difficulty of moving. Once service members and their families arrive at their new duty stations, many will be forced to choose between living in substandard military base housing or trying their luck in the hot civilian real estate market. With housing prices not predicted to cool down until after the summer buying season, a Veterans Benefits Administration home loan won’t get prospective buyers very far when others are ready to pay cash. Nor will military members be able to find relief in rental markets. Rents across the United States just hit a new record high, according to a recent study by real estate company Realtor.com that found the median rental price last April was up 16.7% from a year ago. And while rents have been going up across the United States, the increases have been higher than average in Texas, California, and Florida—states with some of the largest military populations in the country.
Oft-cited conventional wisdom says that military families move every three years on average, disrupting children’s educations and spouses’ careers. Kelly Hruska, government relations director for the National Military Family Association (NMFA), a congressional advocacy nonprofit for military family issues, sees a retention and readiness issue in the making. “Service members are concerned about their families,” Hruska said. “If they’re worried about their families, their heads aren’t in the game.”
Hruska said the DoD set the current basic allowance for housing (BAH) for service members in December 2021, mindful of the looming housing price hike. In 2021, the DoD even provided an option for service members in certain high-cost-of-living areas to apply for a temporary BAH increase, although it was not intended to roll into 2022. Housing prices continued to rise throughout 2021, however, and Hruska said NMFA has heard from military families that landlords are cashing out on homes, further minimizing housing inventory.
“As soon as something is listed, it already has at least five applications in, sight unseen,” said one Army spouse who is living, along with her two children, with her parents. Her husband is attending a training school at another location, and the family will be PCSing together in December to their follow-on assignment at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, one of the areas that was eligible for last year’s temporary BAH increase. They are already looking for housing there. “It is a blessing that I have income and we aren’t relying strictly on BAH,” she wrote, “because I do feel like that gives us a slight edge, but only the slightest. We’ve had to up our search by $700 over BAH just to see things in an acceptable area.” She said the waitlist for base housing is one year, and the only way to buy a house is to build (a process that is also subject to delays due to supply chain issues), so the family is considering finding a rental early and paying rent on it before arriving in the area.
Hruska said families are “getting creative,” moving into RVs and Airbnbs. Even in Fort Hood, located in Texas, a state known for its low cost of living, Hruska said she is hearing from families feeling the pinch. The result, she said, may be that military families not only opt to live apart to avoid the cost and logistical headache of PCSing this year but also question whether military life is really the best option for their family.
“Huge problem here,” a Navy spouse in Washington state told The Scroll by email. “Have friends living in their RV since February waiting on a base house.” Housing prices and limited inventory mean there are “slim pickings out in town,” she said. The spouse moving to MacDill said the RV park there is full. There is an additional domino effect: Spouses I talked to in different parts of the country described limited vacancies at temporary storage facilities as families scramble to adapt to sudden downsizing.
These voluntary separations could pose an even longer-range recruiting problem: Military teens form a core base of new recruits (around a quarter of them, as of 2016), but like their civilian counterparts today, military adolescents are encountering mental health challenges, which were first exacerbated by the pandemic and are now being compounded by frequent moves and repeated and/or extended parental absence. Military leadership are fond of saying they recruit service members and retain families. But to paraphrase Max Frisch, while the military may want soldiers, sailors, Marines, and Airmen, they get people. Amid a shrinking pool of eligible and interested Americans in the country at large, quality-of-life issues for service members and their families could take on a new urgency.
Maggie Phillips is a freelance writer and former Tablet Journalism Fellow.