18 Comments
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Maxwell E's avatar

Long-time Scroll reader and avowed moderate here. I am an economist. I have been giving this admin the benefit of the doubt since Inauguration Day, assuming that there had to be adults in the room behind the scenes with some sort of coherent strategy.

Watching the tariff announcement yesterday felt like suddenly realizing you were in a nightmare. The attempt to explain the “calculation” they used was even worse. Anyone who is remotely familiar with the economics of tariff policy knows now this administration has no idea what they’re talking about.

Jesus Christ.

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Current Resident's avatar

Agreed. The math is not "confusing," it's stupid. A trade deficit is not a tariff, and we already have negotiated deals with many of the countries on the list.

Are we supposed to run a trade surplus with dirt poor countries like Bangladesh? Offer rebates to countries like Australia and the UK where we already have a trade surplus? Is the goal to make t-shirts that sell for $8 here in the U.S.?

Meanwhile, logical moves like closing the de minimis loophole keep getting delayed.

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Renton Hawkey (*rent)'s avatar

Heard the term "Critical Trade Theory" applied to this scheme and I think it fits.

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Suzie's avatar

“ It’s not ‘choose between today’s wonderful prosperity and uncertainty,’” said our analyst. “It’s ‘choose between a morphine drip and life itself.’”

I LOVE that! So apt!

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Hutch's avatar

The tariffs seem nuts. This will bring back high inflation.

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ExCAhillbilly's avatar

You mean the high inflation Biden, his entire administration, the media and posters using Democratic talking points said wasn't happening? Sounds like Dementia.

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Hutch's avatar

Yes the Biden inflation was terrible. Which is why we should avoid repeating the mistake of high inflation.

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barnabus's avatar

Imports are like 15% of the total consumption in the USA. The average tariff is like 25%, so the one-time increase in cost is probably like 3.7% one-time if there is no cost-sharing amongst the importers. So it's not a biggie.

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Hutch's avatar

Those imports are inputs to other goods & services produced in the US, raising domestic cost of production.

Other countries will now apply tariffs or ban American goods, harming US exporters.

The $1T annual trade deficit is completely unsustainable, but I believe it stems from currency manipulation and non-tariff barriers.

A tariff war is the wrong tool for the job.

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Unwoke in Idaho's avatar

Or …. Isn’t it likely that they’ll do as Israel did which is drop them completely?

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barnabus's avatar

Israel did the correct version of response. I think however, EU is too stuck up to follow suit.

Anyway, the consequences are different than with Hawley Smoot because then US had a huge creditor position. So all the countries with huge debt (Germany, France, UK) to the US had a problem of how to service that debt. This is not a problem now.

Non-tariff barriers is roflol. Germany has no problem with them. The main problem with producing in the US is labor that is not well skilled and not well disciplined. It's a challenge to manufacture with such problems.

Then, you also have the dilapidated infrastructure on top. However, infrastructure is not the #1 problem. Maybe #2.

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Mark Biderman's avatar

On tariffs, the calculations make no sense. If a country produces something we don’t and need but that country has little need for US goods they get a tariff. We don’t produce cocoa. It does not look at actual tariffs countries impose on our goods. It also penalizes some countries we need to support like Taiwan. It’s nuts. That’s why the stock markets are tanking.

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Mr. Ala's avatar

I don’t think I need to hear any more from someone that ignorant. You are muted.

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Alan, aka DudeInMinnetonka's avatar

Laura is not kooky she's right and she triggers the goitards.

I'll wait inside on what the so-called neocons did it's an inexplicable slur and even more odd and ironic the Republican party is the party of testosterone yet warhawk is seen as a bad thing as opposed to we've got a massive military infrastructure that rarely gets exercise properly and things are getting obsolete and need to get used up,how long are we going to put up with this shit for?

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Mr. Ala's avatar

Alan, clean up your grammar. You’ll sound better.

What you say is nonsense, so I’m going to mute you; but you’ll sound better to other people.

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Alan, aka DudeInMinnetonka's avatar

You've pre-announced that you're unwilling to listen and you can't comprehend what is as clear as could be so go on advise elsewhere

You missed the part about Gaza rules and messaging

Give me clarity as to what I said that was nonsense cuz that's a blow off flamer dismissal of midwit intellect and I'm sure you could do better 🙄

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generationsago's avatar

Run-on sentences, for one thing.

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Alan, aka DudeInMinnetonka's avatar

You missed the part about I don't give a fuck

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